Kenai982,410 12.4%Kasilof248,912 4.1%Kvichak7,420,180 22.7%Nushagak1,108,220 18.3%Copper412,700 2.8%Yukon98,220 41.2%Kuskokwim51,200 18.5%Situk48,910 6.2%Taku24,180 1.4%Egegik1,582,000 14.8%Ugashik921,000 9.2%Susitna78,400 8.1%Kenai982,410 12.4%Kasilof248,912 4.1%Kvichak7,420,180 22.7%Nushagak1,108,220 18.3%Copper412,700 2.8%Yukon98,220 41.2%Kuskokwim51,200 18.5%Situk48,910 6.2%Taku24,180 1.4%Egegik1,582,000 14.8%Ugashik921,000 9.2%Susitna78,400 8.1%
Module · Forecasts

Run Forecasts & Migration Radar

Bayesian run-timing models with climate-anomaly overlays. Forecasts refresh every 24h from sonar deltas, ocean temperatures, and marine heatwave indices.

Bayesian run model

10-year escapement priors fused with daily passage deltas. Confidence bands at 70/90/95%.

Climate overlays

Gulf of Alaska SST, marine heatwave severity, and ENSO state aligned to each run window.

Migration radar

72-hour passage projection by river, calibrated against sister-system leading indicators.

Forecast · Kenai River
Projected sockeye passage · next 30 days
Forecast total
1.42M
11.2%vs 5-yr avg
Peak ETA
Jul 14
±2.1 days, 90% CI
MHW severity
Cat 2
moderate, GOA
Goal probability
86%
hits OEG window
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