Module · Forecasts
Run Forecasts & Migration Radar
Bayesian run-timing models with climate-anomaly overlays. Forecasts refresh every 24h from sonar deltas, ocean temperatures, and marine heatwave indices.
Bayesian run model
10-year escapement priors fused with daily passage deltas. Confidence bands at 70/90/95%.
Climate overlays
Gulf of Alaska SST, marine heatwave severity, and ENSO state aligned to each run window.
Migration radar
72-hour passage projection by river, calibrated against sister-system leading indicators.
Forecast · Kenai River
Projected sockeye passage · next 30 days
Forecast total
1.42M
▲ 11.2%vs 5-yr avg
Peak ETA
Jul 14
±2.1 days, 90% CI
MHW severity
Cat 2
moderate, GOA
Goal probability
86%
hits OEG window